In today's interconnected commodity markets, understanding volatility spillover dynamics is crucial. This research builds on Diebold & Yilmaz (2012, 2014) to estimate System Resilience, a vital measure for investors and policymakers. By using connectedness-based estimates, a unique stability score for each system component is constructed and aggregated to estimate overall System Resilience. This concept is applied to three key commodity segments: Energy, Agriculture, and Metals. Results show that most commodities, especially bullion, maintain moderate stability, offering investment alternatives even during periods of heightened systemic risk. The study also examines rolling estimates of System Resilience to identify early warning signals through increased standard deviation in successive resilience series. Tipping points indicate critical slowdowns where recovery to a stable state is hindered. Findings suggest that apart from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), commodity portfolios remain relatively stable. The implications are significant for energy policymakers, traders, and financial investors. Early detection of warning signals supports strategic risk management. This research contributes to academic discourse and provides actionable insights, highlighting the importance of early warning indicators in enhancing financial resilience in an ever-evolving market landscape. It underscores the value of foresight in navigating global financial stability.

中文翻译：

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超越波动性：互联商品市场的系统性韧性和风险缓解


在当今相互关联的大宗商品市场中，了解波动率溢出动态至关重要。这项研究基于Diebold和Yilmaz （2012， 2014）来估计系统弹性，这是投资者和政策制定者的重要衡量标准。通过使用基于连通性的估计值，构建并汇总每个系统组件的唯一稳定性分数，以估计整体系统弹性。这一概念适用于三个关键商品细分市场：能源、农业和金属。结果显示，大多数商品，尤其是金条，保持适度的稳定性，即使在系统性风险升高的时期也能提供投资选择。该研究还检查了系统弹性的滚动估计，以通过连续弹性系列中增加的标准差来识别早期预警信号。临界点表示阻碍恢复到稳定状态的严重减速。研究结果表明，除了全球金融危机 （GFC） 之外，大宗商品投资组合保持相对稳定。这对能源政策制定者、贸易商和金融投资者来说意义重大。预警信号的早期检测支持战略风险管理。这项研究有助于学术讨论并提供可操作的见解，强调了早期预警指标在不断变化的市场环境中增强财务弹性的重要性。它强调了远见卓识在驾驭全球金融稳定方面的价值。