The aim of this paper is to assess the impact on the Polish economy of energy price shocks arising after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We computed both the impact of the energy shocks (separately for gas, oil and coal prices) on the real side of the economy, and the pass-through of energy prices to the overall price level. The former part of the analysis was simulated using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Polish economy while the price effects of the shocks were simulated using a dual Leontief price model. Additionally, the price model was augmented with the mechanism of nominal wage adjustment suggested by the theory. This methodological novelty is our original contribution to empirical economics. Our simulations indicate that the price shock for all energy goods of the magnitude observed in 2022 resulted in a decrease in GDP of about 2.8% relative to the baseline solution. Moreover, we document a strong pro-inflationary effect of rising energy prices. After a combined shock to energy prices the consumption deflator increases by 10.3% (when we include the spreading the price increases across the industries), but the effect is simulated at 15.4%, when we account for an additional nominal wage adjustments (ensuring no real wage changes). We show that due to the differences in forward and backward propagation of shocks, the oil price shock had the strongest impact on real aggregates, whereas prices were hit the strongest by the gas price shock.

中文翻译：

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能源价格上涨对波兰经济的影响


本文的目的是评估俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后出现的能源价格冲击对波兰经济的影响。我们计算了能源冲击（分别针对天然气、石油和煤炭价格）对经济实际方面的影响，以及能源价格对整体价格水平的传导。分析的前一部分是使用波兰经济的可计算一般均衡 （CGE） 模型进行模拟的，而冲击的价格影响是使用双重 Leontief 价格模型进行模拟的。此外，价格模型还通过该理论提出的名义工资调整机制进行了增强。这种方法论上的新颖性是我们对实证经济学的原始贡献。我们的模拟表明，2022 年观察到的所有能源商品的价格冲击导致 GDP 相对于基线解决方案下降了约 2.8%。此外，我们记录了能源价格上涨对通胀的强烈促通胀效应。在能源价格受到综合冲击后，消费平减指数增加了 10.3%（当我们考虑到跨行业的价格上涨时），但当我们考虑到额外的名义工资调整（确保没有实际工资变化）时，其影响是模拟的 15.4%。我们表明，由于冲击的正向和反向传播差异，油价冲击对实际骨料的影响最大，而价格受天然气价格冲击的打击最大。