Land use change is an effective factor in climate change and global warming, which contributes to the carbon cycle, radiant energy balance, and dust production. Urmia Lake basin water balance in the Northwestern part of Iran is in a critical condition due to land use change, drought, and climate change. This process has led to the lake water area reduction and pronounced dust production. The satellite images indicate that from 1984 to 2017, 1433 Km2 rangelands and water area of the Urmia Lake basin decreased by more than 2906 Km2. The area of human settlement increased by 550 Km2, irrigated farmland and orchards, 804 Km2, and salty marsh, 3428 Km2. The outputs of the WetSpass hydrological model reveal the highest coefficient of evapotranspiration and interception variation in the East of Urmia Lake basin. The effects of these changes are observed in reduced soil moisture, increased salty marsh, and soft sediments as potential dust resources. During the study period, the frequency of dust days in the North and East of the lake increased 2.5-fold, while in the Southern and Western parts increased 6-fold. The results of the Pettitt Test indicate that these changes began to appear in 2007. The regression and correlation test confirm that salt marshes and soft sediments account for up to 75 %, and the decrease in the area of Urmia Lake for more than 64 % of the dust changes. The results of the assessments indicate the contribution of footprint in the destruction of the natural environment and the water balance of the lake basin. Revision of water resources management and environmental water rights of the lake, changes in the development strategy from agriculture to non-agriculture development based on lower water demand, and reduction of storage dams are among the recommended strategies to address this problem.

中文翻译：

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土地利用变化对乌尔米亚湖流域局地沙尘事件的影响


土地利用变化是气候变化和全球变暖的有效因素，有助于碳循环、辐射能平衡和灰尘产生。由于土地利用变化、干旱和气候变化，伊朗西北部的乌尔米亚湖流域水平衡处于危急状态。这个过程导致湖水面积减少并显着产生灰尘。卫星图像显示，从 1984 年到 2017 年，乌尔米亚湖流域的 1433 Km2 牧场和水域面积减少了超过 2906 Km2。人类居住区面积增加了 550 Km2，灌溉农田和果园面积增加了 804 Km2，咸沼面积增加了 3428 Km2。WetSpass 水文模型的输出揭示了乌尔米亚湖流域东部最高的蒸散和截留变化系数。这些变化的影响体现在土壤水分减少、咸沼泽增加和软沉积物作为潜在的灰尘资源。在研究期间，湖北部和东部的沙尘日频率增加了 2.5 倍，而南部和西部增加了 6 倍。Pettitt 测试的结果表明，这些变化在 2007 年开始出现。回归和相关性检验证实，盐沼和软沉积物占 75% 以上，乌尔米亚湖面积减少占 64 % 以上的尘埃变化。评估结果表明，足迹对自然环境和湖盆水平衡的破坏造成了贡献。 修订湖泊的水资源管理和环境水权，将发展战略从农业转变为基于较低用水需求的非农业发展，以及减少蓄水坝是解决这一问题的推荐策略之一。