We estimate areas of potential flooding exposure within the San José Metropolitan Region with morphometric methods. Based on this potential hazard zoning, we use a spatial-statistical model to explore the difference introduced by land use regulations (municipal and regional) on urban growth, controlling for potential exposure to hazards and other sources of spatial heterogeneity. The potential flood zoning derived coincided with upstream rivers and flat areas between them (likely susceptible to urban drainage capacity problems). We estimated regional land use regulations significantly constrain urban development (with urban growth reductions of about 6 %), but the constraint does not increase in areas exposed to potential flooding; municipal environmental protection zoning was estimated to decrease urban development by 8 %, with an additional but very small 0.1–0.9 % reduction in potential flooding areas. Regional instruments fundamentally applied to the steeper (and hence less exposed to flooding) periphery whereas municipal land use instruments did constrain land from development (especially along rivers) within urban areas.

中文翻译：

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土地利用规划和洪水暴露对哥斯达黎加圣何塞城市发展的影响


我们使用形态测量方法估计圣何塞大都会区内潜在的洪水暴露区域。基于这种潜在灾害分区，我们使用空间统计模型来探索土地使用法规（城市和区域）对城市发展的差异，控制潜在的危害暴露和空间异质性的其他来源。由此得出的潜在洪水分区与上游河流和它们之间的平坦区域相吻合（可能容易受到城市排水能力问题的影响）。我们估计区域土地使用法规显着限制了城市发展（城市增长减少了约 6%），但在暴露于潜在洪水的地区，限制不会增加;据估计，市政环境保护分区使城市发展减少了 8%，潜在洪水区域额外但非常小地减少了 0.1-0.9%。区域工具基本上适用于较陡峭（因此较少受洪水影响）的边缘地区，而市政土地使用工具确实限制了城市地区内的土地开发（尤其是河流沿线）。