Data on 2251 small and medium-size Ukrainian farms in 2021 and 2022 is used to assess the short-term impact of the Russian invasion on productive performance of a sector that is often excluded from official statistics. Once weather is adjusted for, the area response remained limited. However, higher transport cost and input prices severely reduced farm profitability, implying that 46 % of farms had a negative cash flow and most were credit constrained. Total factor productivity varies significantly across size groups, but it is not significantly different between formal and informal farms in the same size group. Despite the war, agricultural producers remain optimistic about the sector’s fundamentals, implying that enabling them to invest, e.g., via digital access to markets and mortgage lending, could foster investment in higher value products and better coverage of small and medium producers by official statistics could capture such improvements and inform policy-making.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯入侵对乌克兰中小农生产力的影响


2021 年和 2022 年乌克兰 2251 个中小型农场的数据用于评估俄罗斯入侵对该行业生产绩效的短期影响，该部门通常被排除在官方统计数据之外。一旦天气得到调整，该地区的反应仍然有限。然而，较高的运输成本和投入价格严重降低了农场的盈利能力，这意味着 46% 的农场现金流为负，并且大多数农场受到信贷限制。全要素生产率在不同规模组之间差异很大，但在同一规模组中的正式和非正式农场之间没有显著差异。尽管发生了战争，但农业生产者仍然对该行业的基本面持乐观态度，这意味着使他们能够进行投资，例如通过数字市场准入和抵押贷款，可以促进对更高价值产品的投资，而官方统计数据更好地覆盖中小型生产者可以捕捉到这些改善并为政策制定提供信息。