Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

中文翻译：

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冲突、作物选择和农业投资：来自尼日利亚的经验证据


冲突仍然是非洲贫困的主要驱动力。该地区的冲突和政治不稳定最近一直在增加，并在公共话语中引起了更多关注。虽然人们普遍认为冲突会扰乱农业生产和粮食系统，但人们对农户生活和生计造成的全面损害以及补救这种损害的机制仍然知之甚少。特别是，暴力冲突与家庭土地分配和相关农业投资决策之间的联系仍未得到充分研究。在这项研究中，我们使用地理编码的纵向数据以及尼日利亚详细的农业面板家庭调查来评估暴力冲突对作物选择决策和相关农业投资的影响。具体来说，我们探讨了农民的土地分配和农业投资决策如何与暴力冲突的爆发和强度相关或做出反应。我们发现，暴力冲突与耕地面积和收获面积份额的减少有关。我们还发现有提示性证据表明，暴力冲突可能会影响农民的作物选择和相关投资，因为暴力冲突与分配给长期作物（例如多年生作物、树木、根和块茎）的土地份额减少有关。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，暴力冲突会直接对农民的农业投资产生负面影响，因为它会影响土地利用模式和投资回报不同的活动之间的投资组合分配。