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The cost of operational complexity: A causal assessment of pre-fire mitigation and wildfire suppression
Forest Policy and Economics ( IF 4.0 ) Pub Date : 2024-10-04 , DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103351
Jesse D. Young, Erin Belval, Benjamin Gannon, Yu Wei, Christopher O'Connor, Christopher Dunn, Bradley M. Pietruszka, David Calkin, Matthew Thompson

Pre-fire mitigation efforts that include the installation and maintenance of fuel breaks are integral to wildfire suppression in Southern California. Fuel breaks alter fire behavior and assist in fire suppression at strategic locations on the landscape. However, the combined effectiveness of fuel breaks and wildfire suppression is not well studied. Using daily firefighting personnel to proxy the quantity and diversity of potential fire suppression operations (i.e., operational complexity), we examined 15 wildfires from 2017 to 2020 in the Los Padres, Angeles, San Bernardino, and Cleveland National Forests to assess how weather and site-specific fuel break characteristics influenced wildfire containment when leveraged during suppression operations. After removing effects of fuel treatments, wildfire and aerial firefighting, we estimated that expanding fuel break width in grass-dominant systems from 10 to 100 m increased the average success rate against a heading fire from 31 % to 41 %. Likewise, recently cleared fuel breaks had higher success rates compared to poorly maintained fuel breaks in both grass (25 % to 45 %) and shrub systems (20 % to 45 %). Combined, grass and shrub systems exhibited an estimated success rate of 80 % under mild weather conditions (20th percentile) and 19 % under severe weather (80th percentile). Other significant determinants included forb and grass production, adjacent tree canopy cover and terrain. Consistent with complexity theory and previous suppression effectiveness research, our analysis showed signs of suppression effectiveness declining as firefighter personnel increased. Future work could better account for the role of suppression with improved data on firefighting resource types, actions, locations, and timing.

中文翻译:


运营复杂性的成本:火灾前缓解和野火灭火的因果评估



包括安装和维护燃料中断在内的火灾前缓解工作是南加州野火扑灭不可或缺的一部分。燃料中断会改变火灾行为并有助于在景观上的战略位置进行灭火。然而,燃料中断和野火灭火的综合效果尚未得到很好的研究。使用日常消防人员来代理潜在灭火行动的数量和多样性(即操作复杂性),我们检查了 2017 年至 2020 年在洛斯帕德雷斯、安吉利斯、圣贝纳迪诺和克利夫兰国家森林发生的 15 场野火,以评估天气和特定地点的燃料中断特征如何影响在灭火行动期间利用时对野火的控制。在去除了燃料处理、野火和空中灭火的影响后,我们估计,将草为主系统的燃料中断宽度从 10 m 扩大到 100 m,可以将对抗巅峰火灾的平均成功率从 31% 提高到 41%。同样,与草地(25% 至 45%)和灌木系统(20% 至 45%)维护不善的燃料中断相比,最近清理的燃料中断的成功率更高。综合来看,草和灌木系统在温和的天气条件下(第 20 个百分位)和 19% 在恶劣天气(第 80 个百分位)下估计成功率为 80%。其他重要的决定因素包括杂草和草的生产、相邻的树冠覆盖和地形。与复杂性理论和之前的灭火效果研究一致,我们的分析显示,随着消防员人数的增加,灭火效果有下降的迹象。未来的工作可以通过改进有关消防资源类型、行动、位置和时间的数据来更好地解释灭火的作用。
更新日期:2024-10-04
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