The evolution of Forest Sector Models (FSMs) since the 1960s has marked a significant advancement in forest economics and policy analysis. However, this development is limited to North America and Europe's nations; tropical countries, crucial for biodiversity, carbon storage, and deforestation, face a notable scarcity of FSMs, often attributed to the limited and fragmented nature of their forest sector data. The importance of unprocessed wood and sources of wood supply are also distinct in tropical countries. We address these issues by introducing a comprehensive framework to build FSMs tailored for tropical countries whose national accounts are aligned with United Nations standards. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework by constructing the Colombian Forest Sector Model (CFSM), a structural econometric partial equilibrium model. The CFSM includes five markets grouped in two market sub-models: one for unprocessed wood (firewood and industrial wood) linked to a forest plantations simulator, and other for manufactured wood products (wood, furniture, and pulp & paper). The model consists of 32 behavioral equations, explaining supply, consumption, exports and imports, and prices for consumption and trade for each market, plus 18 summation and market-clearing identities. Model estimation is based on 41 years (1975–2015) of data collected, organized, and transformed through a meticulous process. Rigorous validation confirms the CFSM's robustness and reliability. The model's application is demonstrated by estimating wood availability and impacts under several plantation expansion scenarios, and the monetary effects of expanding Colombia's wood products industry. The paper opens new frontiers of research in FSMs.

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热带国家的林业部门模型 - 哥伦比亚案例研究


自 1960 年代以来，林业部门模型 （FSM） 的演变标志着森林经济学和政策分析的重大进步。然而，这种发展仅限于北美和欧洲国家;热带国家对生物多样性、碳储存和森林砍伐至关重要，但 FSM 明显稀缺，这通常归因于其林业部门数据的有限和碎片化性质。在热带国家，未加工木材的重要性和木材供应来源也很明显。我们通过引入一个全面的框架来解决这些问题，为国民账户符合联合国标准的热带国家量身定制 FSM。我们通过构建哥伦比亚林业部门模型 （CFSM） 来证明我们框架的适用性，这是一种结构计量经济学部分均衡模型。CFSM包括五个市场，分为两个市场子模型：一个用于与森林种植园模拟器相连的未加工木材（木柴和工业木材），另一个用于制造木制品（木材、家具、纸浆和纸张）。该模型由 32 个行为方程组成，解释了每个市场的供应、消费、进出口、消费和贸易价格，以及 18 个求和和市场清算身份。模型估计基于 41 年（1975-2015 年）通过细致的过程收集、组织和转换的数据。严格的验证证实了 CFSM 的稳健性和可靠性。通过估计几种种植园扩张情景下的木材可用性和影响，以及扩大哥伦比亚木制品行业的货币影响，证明了该模型的应用。该论文开辟了 FSM 研究的新领域。