Coastal upwelling plays a vital role in the support and maintenance of productive marine ecosystems throughout the California Current System (CCS). Here, we evaluate upwelling forecast skill using ∼30 years of seasonal reforecasts from four global climate models contributing to the North American Mulitmodel Ensemble (NMME). The models skillfully predict upwelling intensity throughout much of the CCS in boreal winter, and in the South-Central CCS in spring/summer. The models also skillfully predict various aspects of upwelling phenology, including the timing of the spring transition, as well as the total vertical transport integrated over the course of the upwelling season. Climatic sources of forecast skill vary with season, with contributions from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in winter-spring, and the North Pacific Oscillation and the North Pacific Meridional Mode in the winter-summer. Our results highlight the potential of seasonal climate forecasts to inform management of upwelling-sensitive marine resources.

中文翻译：

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加利福尼亚洋流系统中的季节性上升流预测


沿海上升流在支持和维护整个加利福尼亚洋流系统 （CCS） 的生产性海洋生态系统方面发挥着至关重要的作用。在这里，我们使用来自四个全球气候模型的 ∼30 年的季节性再预测来评估上升流预测技能，这些模型有助于北美多模型集合 （NMME）。这些模型巧妙地预测了冬季北方 CCS 大部分地区和春季/夏季中南部 CCS 的上升流强度。这些模型还巧妙地预测了上升流物候的各个方面，包括春季过渡的时间，以及上升流季节过程中整合的总垂直运输。预报技术的气候来源随季节而变化，冬春季的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和冬夏季的北太平洋涛动和北太平洋经向模式做出了贡献。我们的结果强调了季节性气候预报的潜力，可以为上升流敏感的海洋资源的管理提供信息。