There is increasing concern over the environmental risks associated with deepwater petroleum exploration activities. The integration of environmental risk assessment and oil spill modeling can help to understand and quantitatively characterize the potential risks from subsea blowouts in specific regions. This study integrates a novel deepwater oil spill model (DWOSM) and an extended stochastic modeling methodology to assess the environmental risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during a simulated offshore subsurface blowout off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada. Additionally, the effectiveness of subsea dispersant injection (SSDI) in spill mitigation was investigated through comparative simulations. Resultant spill hazard and risk maps for current and proposed areas of offshore oil and gas development, in support of contingency plans, revealed that surfaced oil tends to drift toward the southeast and east in the hypothetical blowout case; nearshore areas of east Newfoundland have relatively low risk shortly after a deep-sea blowout; released PAHs may elicit more adverse ecological impacts than volatile organic compounds (VOCs); and SSDI application can reduce contaminant exposure levels but at the expense of enlarging the impacted zone for a short term. This stochastic simulation-based risk assessment provides scientific evidence to support decision-making in strategic oil spill response operations.

中文翻译：

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海底井喷产生的芳烃风险评估：加拿大东部的案例研究


人们越来越关注与深水石油勘探活动相关的环境风险。环境风险评估和溢油建模的集成有助于了解和定量描述特定地区海底井喷的潜在风险。本研究整合了一种新型深水溢油模型 （DWOSM） 和一种扩展的随机建模方法，以评估加拿大纽芬兰东海岸模拟海上地下井喷期间多环芳烃 （PAH） 的环境风险。此外，通过比较模拟研究了海底分散剂注入 （SSDI） 在减少泄漏方面的有效性。为支持应急计划，当前和拟议的海上石油和天然气开发区域的泄漏危险和风险地图显示，在假设的井喷情况下，表面的石油倾向于向东南和东方漂移;纽芬兰东部的近岸地区在深海井喷后不久的风险相对较低;释出的多环芳烃可能比挥发性有机化合物 （VOC） 产生更不利的生态影响;SSDI 应用可以降低污染物暴露水平，但代价是在短期内扩大影响区域。这种基于随机模拟的风险评估为战略溢油响应行动的决策提供了科学证据。