Why do protests emerge and endure in some localities but not others? This study focuses on urban protests in the city of Tehran, Iran’s capital and largest city, during the 2022 uprising to explain why protests emerged and endured in some neighbourhoods but not others. Using an original geocoded dataset of 339 protest events at the neighbourhood level, I test two competing sets of demographic and spatial explanations. The results reveal that protests are more likely to emerge and persist in neighbourhoods with a higher percentage of educated citizens, closer proximity to university campuses and convenient access to metro stations. I provide theoretical explanations on how education boosts political awareness, university campuses act as networking hubs influencing surrounding areas and metro stations facilitate critical gathering points for protests. The findings remain consistent even when I control for a range of variables and use alternative specifications.

中文翻译：

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人口特征还是空间结构？解读 2022 年伊朗抗议活动期间的当地差异


为什么抗议活动在某些地方出现并持续存在，而另一些地方却没有？本研究重点关注 2022 年起义期间伊朗首都和最大城市德黑兰市的城市抗议活动，以解释为什么抗议活动在某些社区出现并持续存在，而在其他社区却没有。使用包含 339 个社区级别抗议事件的原始地理编码数据集，我测试了两组相互竞争的人口统计和空间解释。结果显示，抗议活动更有可能在受教育公民比例较高、更靠近大学校园、地铁站交通便利的社区出现并持续存在。我就教育如何提高政治意识、大学校园充当影响周边地区的网络枢纽以及地铁站为抗议活动的重要聚集点提供理论解释。即使我控制了一系列变量并使用替代规范，结果也保持一致。