Coal mining disturbs the roof overlying rock, forming a channel for roof water inrush. This process destroys the primary seepage state of the deep aquifer, resulting in waste and pollution of deep water resources and posing a significant threat to coal mining. Therefore, through field measurement and numerical simulation, this paper comprehensively analyzes the development law of coal seam mining overlying rock fracture, and determines the influence range of coal seam roof water inrush. Then, a set pair variable weight - forward associated cloud prediction model is constructed to predict the dominant water inrush window and seepage channel of coal seam roof, and the key protection area of coal mining roof water inrush is delineated. The results show that with the continuous advance of the coal face, the stress shifts to both sides of the face, forming a stress concentration area, and the vertical fissure develops intensively, which becomes the main channel of water inrush. After the development is stable, it is comprehensively determined that the fissure production ratio of the coal seam is 11.7, and the fracture zone extends to the aquifer area are the water inrush source. Then, through the prediction model, the edge of the danger area near the high-risk area is defined as the advantage window of coal seam roof water inrush, and the result is consistent with the actual water inrush event. Therefore, the target of water inrush in roof is determined, and the effective measures of water reduction mining are put forward. This study is of great significance for protecting deep water resources, ensuring mine safety, and creating efficiency and increasing income.

中文翻译：

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基于集合对变量权重的屋顶优势突水窗预测及控制目标区分析 - 正向相关云模型


采煤会扰动顶板上覆的岩石，形成顶板突水通道。这个过程破坏了深层含水层的初级渗流状态，导致深层水资源的浪费和污染，对煤炭开采构成重大威胁。因此，本文通过现场实测和数值模拟，综合分析了煤层开采上覆岩石断裂的发展规律，确定了煤层顶板突水的影响范围。然后，构建一组对变权-前向关联云预测模型，预测煤层顶板优势突水窗口和渗流通道，划定煤矿顶板突水重点保护区。结果表明：随着采煤工作面的不断推进，应力向工作面两侧转移，形成应力集中区，垂向裂缝发展密集，成为突水的主通道。开发稳定后，综合确定煤层裂缝生出比为11.7，裂缝带延伸至含水层区为突水源。然后，通过预测模型，将高危区附近的危险区边缘定义为煤层顶板突水的优势窗口，结果与实际突水事件一致。因此，确定了顶板突水的目标，并提出了减水开采的有效措施。这项研究对于保护深水资源、确保矿山安全、创造效率和增加收入具有重要意义。