Using data from a large representative survey, we document that consumers are very uncertain about the emissions associated with various actions, which may affect their willingness to reduce their carbon footprint. We then experimentally test two channels for the behavioral impact of such uncertainty, namely risk aversion about the impact of mitigating actions and the formation of motivated beliefs about this impact. In two novel large online experiments (N=2,219), participants make incentivized trade-offs between personal gain and (uncertain) carbon impact. We find no evidence that uncertainty affects individual climate change mitigation efforts through risk aversion or motivated belief channels. The results suggest that reducing consumer uncertainty through information campaigns is not a policy panacea and that communicating scientific uncertainty around climate impact need not backfire.

中文翻译：

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碳影响的不确定性和避免 CO[公式省略] 排放的意愿


使用来自大型代表性调查的数据，我们记录了消费者对与各种行动相关的排放非常不确定，这可能会影响他们减少碳足迹的意愿。然后，我们实验测试了这种不确定性对行为影响的两个渠道，即对缓解措施影响的风险厌恶和对这种影响的动机信念的形成。在两个新颖的大型在线实验 （N=2,219） 中，参与者在个人收益和（不确定的）碳影响之间做出激励性的权衡。我们没有发现任何证据表明不确定性通过风险厌恶或动机信念渠道影响了个体的气候变化缓解工作。结果表明，通过信息宣传活动减少消费者的不确定性并不是政策的灵丹妙药，围绕气候影响传达科学不确定性也不必适得其反。