Forests are essential to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, transpiration, and turnover. However, the quantification of climate change impacts on forest growth is uncertain and even contradictory in some regions, which is the result of spatially constrained studies. Here, we use an unprecedented network of 1.5 million tree growth records from 493 Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris stands across Europe to predict species‐specific tree growth variability from 1950 to 2016 (R2 > 0.82) and develop 21st‐century gridded projections considering different climate change scenarios. The approach demonstrates overall positive effects of warming temperatures leading to 25% projected conifer growth increases under the SPP370 scenario, but these additional carbon gains are spatially inhomogeneous and associated with geographic climate gradients. Maximum gains are projected for pines in Scandinavia, where growth trajectories indicate 50% increases by 2071–2100. Smaller but significant growth reductions are projected in Mediterranean Europe, where conifer growth shrinks by 25% in response to warmer temperatures. Our results reveal potential mitigating effects via forest carbon sequestration increases in response to global warming and stress the importance of effective forest management.

中文翻译：

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气候变暖下挪威云杉和苏格兰松林未来生长的对比


森林通过碳封存、蒸腾和周转对缓解气候变化至关重要。然而，气候变化对森林生长影响的量化在某些地区是不确定的，甚至是矛盾的，这是空间受限研究的结果。在这里，我们使用了一个前所未有的网络，该网络由来自欧洲 493 个云杉和樟子松林的 150 万条树木生长记录组成，以预测 1950 年至 2016 年特定物种的树木生长变化 （R2 > 0.82），并开发 21 世纪的网格化预测，考虑不同的气候变化情景。该方法证明了在 SPP370 情景下，温度变暖导致针叶树生长增加 25% 的总体积极影响，但这些额外的碳增加在空间上是不均匀的，并且与地理气候梯度有关。预计斯堪的纳维亚半岛的松树产量最大，其生长轨迹表明，到 2071 年至 2100 年，松树将增加 50%。预计地中海欧洲的生长减少幅度较小但显着，那里的针叶树生长因气温升高而萎缩 25%。我们的结果揭示了通过增加森林碳封存以应对全球变暖的潜在缓解作用，并强调了有效森林管理的重要性。