High‐quality development in agriculture is crucial for maintaining the harmonious balance between human society and the natural environment, and promoting this development model is one of the key measures to alleviate land degradation issues. This study, grounded in the PRED theory (Population, Resources, Environment, and Development theory) framework, establishes an evaluation system for high‐quality agricultural development by selecting 128 cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt as its samples. It quantifies land carrying capacity, utilizes the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model to assess agricultural production efficiency, and applies the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the interplay between these two factors. The results reveal that the land resource carrying index has risen from 1.245 to 1.70, indicating an escalating tension between population and food resources. Furthermore, agricultural production efficiency has seen a 16.56% increase, reflecting positive advancements in agricultural production across the region. Spatial distribution analysis shows that the standard deviation ellipse is concentrated in the mid and lower reaches, centered in Changde, Hunan, and expanding westward, with a broader coverage area and perimeter. Additionally, the decoupling relationship between land carrying capacity and agricultural production efficiency primarily manifests in three forms: strong negative decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling. This research offers significant insights for effectively mitigating the strain between population growth and resource‐environmental carrying capacity.

中文翻译：

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探索平衡发展之路：农业生产效率与土地承载力的脱钩评价


农业高质量发展对于维持人类社会与自然环境的和谐平衡至关重要，推广这种发展模式是缓解土地退化问题的关键措施之一。本研究以 PRED 理论 （Population， Resources， Environment， and Development theory） 框架为基础，选取长江经济带内的 128 个城市作为样本，建立了农业高质量发展评价体系。它量化了土地承载能力，利用随机前沿分析 （SFA） 模型来评估农业生产效率，并应用 Tapio 解耦模型来分析这两个因素之间的相互作用。结果表明，土地资源承载指数从 1.245 上升到 1.70，表明人口与食物资源之间的紧张关系不断升级。此外，农业生产效率提高了 16.56%，反映了整个地区农业生产的积极进步。空间分布分析表明，标准差椭圆集中在中下游，以湖南常德为中心，并向西扩展，覆盖面积和周长更广。此外，土地承载力与农业生产效率的脱钩关系主要表现为强负脱钩、弱脱钩和扩张性负脱钩三种形式。这项研究为有效缓解人口增长与资源环境承载能力之间的压力提供了重要的见解。