Substance use relapse is difficult to define, and previous work has used one-size-fits-all ad hoc definitions. Researchers have called for a dynamic and personalized understanding of relapse as a concept and model, necessitating novel statistical tools. We aimed to develop and validate a novel statistical model of latent relapse processes: the double-well potential model (DWPM). This model describes posttreatment substance use in terms of a dynamical system with stable equilibria of abstinence and relapse, person-specific dominant equilibria (tilt), the ease of changing between equilibria (steepness), and an overall relapse risk (RR). Using timeline follow-back data from N = 139 adults with a substance use disorder transitioning back to the community after residential treatment, we examined individual differences and the criterion-related validity of DWPM parameters to determine the clinical utility of the double-well model. While nonuse was the predominant stable state across participants, we found significant between-subjects variability steepness and RR. These individual differences were predictable via demographics, baseline psychopathology, treatment history, and treatment condition. Steepness and RR also predicted long-term outcomes, including life satisfaction and criminal behavior, above and beyond traditional metrics of relapse (proportion of days used and time to first use). Thus, the DWPM is a strong theoretical and statistical representation of the underlying relapse processes. Moreover, the parameters show criterion-related validity and may be useful in precision medicine. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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通过双井电位系统对成瘾复发的动力学进行建模。


物质使用复发很难定义，以前的工作使用了一刀切的临时定义。研究人员呼吁将复发作为一个概念和模型进行动态和个性化的理解，因此需要新颖的统计工具。我们旨在开发和验证一种新型的潜在复发过程统计模型：双阱电位模型 （DWPM）。该模型根据具有戒断和复发稳定平衡的动态系统、个人特异性优势均衡（倾斜）、平衡（陡峭）和总体复发风险 （RR） 之间的易易度来描述治疗后物质的使用。使用来自 N = 139 名在住院治疗后过渡回社区的物质使用障碍成年人的时间线回溯数据，我们检查了个体差异和 DWPM 参数的标准相关有效性，以确定双井模型的临床效用。虽然不使用是参与者的主要稳定状态，但我们发现受试者间差异陡峭度和 RR 显着。这些个体差异可以通过人口统计学、基线精神病理学、治疗史和治疗条件来预测。陡峭度和 RR 还预测了长期结果，包括生活满意度和犯罪行为，高于传统的复发指标 （使用天数的比例和首次使用的时间）。因此，DWPM 是潜在复发过程的有力理论和统计表示。此外，这些参数显示了与标准相关的有效性，可能有助于精准医学。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 （c） 2024 APA，保留所有权利）。