What predicts cross-country differences in the recovery of socioeconomic activity from the COVID-19 pandemic? To answer this question, we examined how quickly countries' socioeconomic activity bounced back to normalcy from disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic based on residents' attitudes, values, and beliefs as measured in the World Values Survey. We trained nine preregistered machine learning models to predict the rate at which various socioeconomic metrics (e.g., public transportation occupancy, cinema attendance) recovered from their COVID-19 lows based on the World Values Survey. All models had high predictive accuracy when presented with out-of-sample data (rs ≥ .83). Feature importance analyses identified five psychological predictors that most strongly predicted socioeconomic recovery from COVID-19: religiosity, liberal social attitudes, the value of independence, obedience to authority, and the Protestant work ethic. Although past research has established the role of religiosity, liberalism, and independence in predicting resilience, it has not yet considered obedience to authority or the Protestant work ethic. Thus, the current research suggests new directions for future work on resilience that may not be apparent from either a deductive or an inductive approach. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 大流行期间社会经济弹性的心理预测因子：来自机器学习的证据。


什么可以预测从 COVID-19 大流行中恢复社会经济活动的跨国差异？为了回答这个问题，我们根据世界价值观调查中衡量的居民的态度、价值观和信仰，研究了各国的社会经济活动从 COVID-19 大流行造成的中断中恢复正常的速度。我们训练了 9 个预先注册的机器学习模型，以根据世界价值观调查预测各种社会经济指标（例如，公共交通占用率、电影院上座率）从 COVID-19 低点恢复的速度。当呈现样本外数据时，所有模型都具有很高的预测准确性 （rs ≥ .83）。特征重要性分析确定了最强烈地预测 COVID-19 中社会经济复苏的五个心理预测因子：宗教信仰、自由主义社会态度、独立价值、服从权威和新教职业道德。尽管过去的研究已经确定了宗教信仰、自由主义和独立性在预测复原力方面的作用，但它尚未考虑服从权威或新教的职业道德。因此，目前的研究为未来的弹性工作提出了新的方向，这些方向从演绎或归纳方法中可能并不明显。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 （c） 2024 APA，保留所有权利）。