Why do individuals tend to discount bad news when making judgements about the likelihood of future events? In this short review, we explore recent research findings regarding this frequently observed and replicated phenomenon – optimism bias – with particular attention on how this bias affects the way individuals update or revise their beliefs. We begin by highlighting five interrelated frameworks for understanding optimism bias (utility maximization, active inference, dual systems, cognitive immunity, predictive processing). We then examine findings from affective and clinical domains that indicate that people with depression and other psychiatric disorders, as well as acutely sad or anxious individuals, have dampened optimistic bias when updating beliefs in response to good news. Finally, we consider the neural underpinnings of these phenomena through the free energy principle and discuss implications for clinical interventions and future research.

中文翻译：

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从感知到投射：探索理解乐观偏见和信念更新方面的神经情感进展


为什么个人在判断未来事件的可能性时倾向于忽视坏消息？在这篇简短的综述中，我们探讨了关于这种经常观察到和复制的现象——乐观偏见——的最新研究结果，特别关注这种偏见如何影响个人更新或修改其信念的方式。我们首先重点介绍了用于理解乐观偏差的五个相互关联的框架（效用最大化、主动推理、双元系统、认知免疫、预测处理）。然后，我们检查了情感和临床领域的研究结果，这些发现表明患有抑郁症和其他精神疾病的人，以及极度悲伤或焦虑的人，在更新信念以回应好消息时，已经抑制了乐观偏见。最后，我们通过自由能原理考虑这些现象的神经基础，并讨论对临床干预和未来研究的影响。