OBJECTIVE Although many factors predict adolescent depression, risks that operate as necessary conditions (i.e., the absence of the factor conveys the absence of the outcome) have been largely unexplored. This study aimed to evaluate which psychosocial risk factors might serve as necessary conditions for future onset of depression across adolescence. METHOD At baseline we assessed cognitive and personality risks, symptom severity, stressful events, and past depression history among 382 adolescents (225 girls; age M = 12.6), who were then followed over 2 years with repeated diagnostic interviews to ascertain depression onset. We applied an innovative statistical approach in mental health research, namely Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA). RESULTS Results showed that baseline rumination (d = .50), stressful events (d = .37), depressive symptoms (d = .23), and self-criticism (d = .35) all emerged as significant necessary conditions for adolescents to be diagnosed with depressive disorder(s) over subsequent 24 months. Overall, 13.5% of the sample did not show all the necessary conditions (i.e., they lacked one or more conditions) and were therefore virtually immune from experiencing one or more major depressive episodes (MDEs) over the follow-up, and 65.5% did not meet all those conditions for experiencing three or more MDEs (i.e., recurrent depression). CONCLUSION The findings can inform future theory building and testing as well as clinical applications via screening of necessary risk to future pediatric depression so that youth who may most benefit from effective interventions can be identified. STUDY PREREGISTRATION INFORMATION The Necessary Conditions for Depressive Symptomsand Major Depressionin Adolescence; https://osf.io; b5ced. DIVERSITY & INCLUSION STATEMENT We worked to ensure race, ethnic, and/or other types of diversity in the recruitment of human participants. We worked to ensure sex and gender balance in the recruitment of human participants. One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as a member of one or more historically underrepresented sexual and/or gender groups in science.

中文翻译：

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哪些社会心理风险是青春期患抑郁症的必要条件？一种应用必要条件分析的新方法。


目的 尽管许多因素预测青少年抑郁症，但作为必要条件的风险 （即，没有该因素表示没有结果） 在很大程度上尚未得到探索。本研究旨在评估哪些社会心理风险因素可能成为未来青春期抑郁症发作的必要条件。方法 在基线时，我们评估了 382 名青少年 （225 名女孩;年龄 M = 12.6） 的认知和人格风险、症状严重程度、压力事件和既往抑郁史，然后对这些青少年进行了 2 年以上的随访，反复进行诊断访谈以确定抑郁症的发作。我们在心理健康研究中应用了一种创新的统计方法，即必要条件分析 （NCA）。结果 结果显示，基线反刍 （d = .50）、压力事件 （d = .37）、抑郁症状 （d = .23） 和自我批评 （d = .35） 都成为青少年在随后 24 个月内被诊断患有抑郁症的重要必要条件。总体而言，13.5% 的样本没有显示所有必要条件（即他们缺乏一个或多个条件），因此在随访中几乎不会经历一次或多次重度抑郁发作 （MDE），65.5% 的人不满足经历三次或更多 MDE （即复发性抑郁症）的所有条件。结论： 这些发现可以通过筛查未来儿科抑郁症的必要风险来为未来的理论构建和测试以及临床应用提供信息，从而确定可能从有效干预措施中受益最多的青年。研究预注册信息 青春期抑郁症状和重度抑郁症的必要条件;https://osf.io;b5ced 的。 多元化与包容性声明我们努力确保种族、民族和/或其他类型的多样性在招募人类参与者时。我们努力确保在招募人类参与者时实现性别和性别平衡。本文的一位或多位作者自认为是一个或多个历史上代表性不足的科学界性别和/或性别群体的成员。