Groundwater resources frequently trend toward unsustainable levels because, absent effective institutions, individual water users generally act independently without considering the impacts on other users. Hydro-economic models (HEMs) of human-natural systems can play a positive role toward successful groundwater management by yielding valuable knowledge and insight. The current study explores how an HEM that captures essential physical and economic characteristics of a system can shed light on the system's processes and dynamics to benefit stakeholders, managers, and also researchers. These propositions are illustrated using the Harney Basin, Oregon, which has seen large groundwater declines in the past 20 years. The HEM shows that: (a) although current groundwater pumping rates will gradually raise costs and reduce well yields, irrigators gain the highest aggregate economic return by continuing current pumping; (b) lowland areas of the basin are hydrologically connected, which limits the efficacy of remedies focused on regulations only in some portions of the basin; (c) community expectations regarding the efficacy of several proposed solutions are overly optimistic; and (d) the study's scenarios identify interventions that would stabilize the groundwater system and prevent additional adverse impacts on residential and livestock wells and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. These interventions would require limiting groundwater pumping by nearly half and reducing annual profits by $7.5–$9.0M. The HEM also demonstrated its value to researchers: its insights shifted attention toward questions about Oregon's existing groundwater institutions and their inability to adaptively manage the transition from abundant groundwater to scarce groundwater in a timely manner.

中文翻译：

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通过水利经济系统模型推进可持续地下水管理：俄勒冈州哈尼盆地的调查


地下水资源经常趋向于不可持续的水平，因为缺乏有效的机构，个人用水者通常独立行动，而不考虑对其他用户的影响。人类-自然系统的水文经济模型 （HEM） 可以通过产生有价值的知识和见解，为成功的地下水管理发挥积极作用。目前的研究探讨了捕捉系统基本物理和经济特征的 HEM 如何阐明系统的过程和动态，从而使利益相关者、管理人员和研究人员受益。这些主张以俄勒冈州的哈尼盆地为例进行说明，该盆地在过去 20 年中地下水大幅下降。HEM 表明：（a） 尽管目前的地下水抽水率会逐渐提高成本并降低水井产量，但灌溉者通过继续当前抽水可以获得最高的总经济回报;（b） 流域的低地地区在水文上相连，这限制了仅针对流域某些部分的监管的补救措施的有效性;（c） 机构群体对几个拟议解决方案的有效性的期望过于乐观;（d） 该研究的情景确定了可以稳定地下水系统并防止对住宅和牲畜井以及依赖地下水的生态系统产生额外不利影响的干预措施。这些干预措施将需要将地下水抽取限制近一半，并将年利润减少 $7.5–$9.0M。HEM 还向研究人员展示了它的价值：它的见解将注意力转移到有关俄勒冈州现有地下水机构的问题上，以及它们无法及时适应性地管理从丰富地下水到稀缺地下水的过渡。