Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane landfalls. This work investigates past and future changes in North Atlantic TC activity, focusing on interannual variability and evaluating the contributions from anthropogenic forcing. We show that interannual variability of Atlantic TC activity has already increased, evidenced by an increase in the occurrence of both extremely active and inactive TC seasons. TC-resolving general circulation models project a 36% increase in the variance of North Atlantic TC activity, measured by accumulated cyclone energy, by the middle of the 21st century. These changes are the result of increased variability in vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, in response to enhanced Pacific-to-Atlantic interbasin sea surface temperature variations. Robust anthropogenic-forced intensification in the variability of Atlantic TC activity will continue in the future, with important implications for emergency planning and societal preparedness.

中文翻译：

---

预计大西洋飓风季极其活跃的频率增加


北大西洋热带气旋 （TC） 活跃和非活跃季节之间逐年波动的未来变化很少受到关注，但可能会对易受飓风登陆的地区产生重大社会影响。这项工作调查了北大西洋 TC 活动的过去和未来变化，重点是年际变化并评估人为强迫的贡献。我们表明，大西洋 TC 活动的年际变化已经增加，极度活跃和非活跃的 TC 季节的发生率增加证明了这一点。TC 解析一般环流模型预测，到 21 世纪中叶，以累积的气旋能量来衡量，北大西洋 TC 活动的方差将增加 36%。这些变化是垂直风切变和大气稳定性变化增加的结果，以响应太平洋到大西洋流域间海面温度变化的增强。大西洋 TC 活动变化性的人为强迫强势增强将在未来继续，对应急计划和社会准备具有重要影响。