Objective Low physical activity (PA) levels are associated with increased mortality. Improved measurement has resulted in stronger proven associations between PA and mortality, but this has not yet translated to improved estimates of the disease burden attributable to low PA. This study estimated how much low PA reduces life expectancy, and how much life expectancy could be improved by increasing PA levels for both populations and individuals. Methods We applied a predictive model based on device-measured PA risk estimates and a life-table model analysis, using a life-table of the 2019 US population based on 2017 mortality data from the National Centre for Health Statistics. The participants included were 40+ years with PA levels based on data from the 2003–2006 National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey. The main outcome was life expectancy based on PA levels. Results If all individuals were as active as the top 25% of the population, Americans over the age of 40 could live an extra 5.3 years (95% uncertainty interval 3.7 to 6.8 years) on average. The greatest gain in lifetime per hour of walking was seen for individuals in the lowest activity quartile where an additional hour’s walk could add 376.3 min (~6.3 hours) of life expectancy (95% uncertainty interval 321.5 to 428.5 min). Conclusion Higher PA levels provide a substantial increase in population life expectancy. Increased investment in PA promotion and creating PA promoting living environments can promote healthy longevity. Data are available on reasonable request. The model is available on reasonable request.

中文翻译：

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身体活动和预期寿命：寿命表分析


目的 低体力活动 （PA） 水平与死亡率增加相关。改进的测量导致 PA 与死亡率之间有更强的已证实关联，但这尚未转化为对低 PA 归因于疾病负担的改进估计。这项研究估计了低 PA 在多大程度上降低了预期寿命，以及通过增加人群和个人的 PA 水平可以提高多少预期寿命。方法 我们应用了基于设备测量的 PA 风险估计和生命表模型分析的预测模型，使用基于国家卫生统计中心 2017 年死亡率数据的 2019 年美国人口生命表。根据 40-2003 年全国健康和营养检查调查的数据，纳入的参与者是 2006+ 岁的 PA 水平。主要结局是基于 PA 水平的预期寿命。结果如果所有个体都与人口中前 25% 的人一样活跃，那么 40 岁以上的美国人平均可以多活 5.3 年（95% 不确定性区间为 3.7 至 6.8 年）。在最低活动四分位数的个体，每走一小时的人生收益最大，其中多走一小时可以增加 376.3 分钟（~6.3 小时）的预期寿命（95% 不确定性区间 321.5 至 428.5 分钟）。结论 较高的 PA 水平可显着增加人口预期寿命。增加对 PA 推广和创造 PA 促进生活环境的投资可以促进健康的长寿。数据可应合理要求提供。该模型可根据合理要求提供。