Due to the inherent safety concerns associated with traffic movement in unconstrained two-dimensional settings, it is important that pedestrians’ and other modes’ movements such as bicyclists are modeled as a risk-taking stochastic dynamic process that may lead to errors and thus contacts and collisions. Among the existing models that may capture risk-taking behaviors are: 1) the social force models (through the interplay of the repulsion and the attraction force parameters); 2) and the discrete-choice models (through the rationality or the bounded rationality paradigm while weighing different alternatives). Given that the social force models may not readily capture the contact/collision dynamics through the Newtonian force framework, decision-making theories are hypothesized as a feasible approach to formulate a new model that can account for cognitive and behavioral dimensions such as uncertainty and risk. However, instead of relying on the bounded rationality theory, in this paper, a generalized Prospect Theory based microsimulation model is proposed. The model relies on the micro-economics Prospect Theory paradigm where pedestrians or bicyclists (i.e., micro-mobility users) evaluate their speed and directional alternatives while considering the possibility of colliding with other obstacles/users. A numerical analysis on the main model parameters is presented. The model is then calibrated and validated using two real-world data sets with trajectories recorded in naturalistic settings. With the calibrated parameters studied, simulation exercises and sensitivity analysis are conducted to recreate bottlenecks and lane formations in different conditions. The findings show that the proposed model's parameters reflect the risk-taking tendencies of different roadway users in mixed right-of-way's environments while showing realistic microscopic and macroscopic traffic flow characteristics.

中文翻译：

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弥合微观经济学和微出行之间的差距：行人和骑自行车者操作行为的基于风险的二维微观模型


由于在不受约束的二维环境中与交通运动相关的固有安全问题，因此将行人和其他模式（如骑自行车的人）的运动建模为一个冒险的随机动态过程非常重要，该过程可能导致错误，从而导致接触和碰撞。可能捕捉冒险行为的现有模型包括：1） 社会力量模型（通过排斥力和吸引力参数的相互作用）;2） 和离散选择模型（通过理性或有限理性范式，同时权衡不同的选择）。鉴于社会力模型可能无法通过牛顿力框架轻松捕捉接触/碰撞动力学，因此假设决策理论是一种可行的方法来制定一个可以解释认知和行为维度（如不确定性和风险）的新模型。然而，本文没有依赖有限理性理论，而是提出了一种基于广义前景理论的微观模拟模型。该模型依赖于微观经济学前景理论范式，其中行人或骑自行车的人（即微出行用户）评估他们的速度和方向选择，同时考虑与其他障碍物/用户碰撞的可能性。对主要模型参数进行了数值分析。然后使用两个真实数据集对模型进行校准和验证，并在自然环境中记录轨迹。在研究校准参数后，进行仿真练习和灵敏度分析，以重现不同条件下的瓶颈和车道形成。 结果表明，所提出的模型的参数反映了不同道路使用者在混合通行权环境中的风险承担倾向，同时显示了真实的微观和宏观交通流特征。