The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union will likely result in reduced fishing grounds for the Belgian fishing fleet. This fleet now targets demersal fish, but there used to be a tradition of catching Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). After the stock collapse of Atlantic herring in the 1970s, fishing on herring by the Belgian fleet did not recover and herring quotas are now exchanged with the Netherlands and Germany. To assess the feasibility of reintroducing herring fisheries for the Belgian fishing fleet, our study created spatiotemporal species distribution models for Atlantic herring in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, focusing results on the Belgian Part of the North Sea. In total 30078 occurrence records were derived and processed to fit species-environmental relationships with temperature, salinity, seabed characteristics and plankton concentration using Maximum entropy (Maxent) models. The Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic plot (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) were used to assess model fit. Models performed well (AUC > 0.7 and TSS > 0.6). While a broad spatiotemporal distribution of Atlantic herring in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean was inferred, regional differences show that herring habitat is most suitable during winter months in the Belgian Part of the North Sea for both adult and larval herring (habitat suitability index > 75%). This regional trend in the Belgian Part of the North Sea was negatively correlated (R = -0.8) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We anticipate that these findings will provide valuable insights for policymakers to implement sustainable fisheries management practices.

中文翻译：

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对东北大西洋的大西洋鲱鱼分布进行建模，为可持续渔业做出明智的决策


英国退出欧盟可能会导致比利时捕鱼船队的渔场减少。这支船队现在以底层鱼类为目标，但过去有捕捉大西洋鲱鱼 （Clupea harengus） 的传统。1970 年代大西洋鲱鱼种群崩溃后，比利时船队的鲱鱼捕捞活动并未恢复，现在与荷兰和德国交换鲱鱼配额。为了评估比利时捕鱼船队重新引入鲱鱼渔业的可行性，我们的研究为东北大西洋的大西洋鲱鱼创建了时空物种分布模型，将结果集中在北海的比利时部分。总共得出并处理了 30078 条出现记录，以使用最大熵 （Maxent） 模型拟合物种-环境关系与温度、盐度、海底特征和浮游生物浓度。采用受试者工作特征图的曲线下面积 （AUC） 和真实技能统计量 （TSS） 评估模型拟合度。模型表现良好（AUC > 0.7 和 TSS > 0.6）。虽然推断出大西洋鲱鱼在东北大西洋的广泛时空分布，但区域差异表明，在北海比利时部分，鲱鱼栖息地在冬季最适合成年鲱鱼和幼鲱鱼（栖息地适宜性指数 > 75%）。北海比利时部分的这一区域趋势与北大西洋涛动 （NAO） 呈负相关 （R = -0.8）。我们预计这些发现将为政策制定者实施可持续渔业管理实践提供有价值的见解。