Achieving carbon peak and neutral as scheduled requires joint efforts to reduce emissions and increase sinks. But in the long term, mitigating climate change requires the latter to play a greater role, in which achieving economic and environmental benefits through ocean carbon sink trading is an indispensable and important measure. Around the ocean carbon sink trading, this paper constructs an ‘Economic-Financial-Environmental’ analytical framework through the BGG-DICE-DSGE model, explores the heterogeneous impact of ocean carbon sink trading on macroeconomics and climate change by impulse response, examines the influencing factors by sensitivity analysis, and uses welfare analysis to explore further performance in financial markets. It is discovered that: (1) ocean carbon sink trading can mitigate climate change, boost social welfare, and reinforce even more under active fiscal and monetary policies and higher ocean output percentage. (2) As the main body of carbon sink trading, firms have a more active impact on economic and environmental systems than government. (3) The proportion of marine output value significantly impacts dual benefits. The efficiency of ocean carbon sinks has a significant impact on environmental benefits, while the related impact of carbon sink prices is weak. (4) Due to the financial accelerator effect, any decrease in output caused by exogenous shocks in the financial market compounds the loss of social welfare. This paper theoretically explains the strategic significance of ocean carbon sink trading, and provides necessary experience and reference for the establishment of ocean carbon sink trading market in the future.

中文翻译：

---

海洋碳汇交易与金融支持的双重效应——基于BGG-DICE-DSGE模型的分析


如期实现碳达峰和碳中和需要共同努力减少排放和增加汇。但从长远来看，减缓气候变化需要后者发挥更大的作用，其中通过海洋碳汇交易实现经济和环境效益是不可或缺的重要措施。围绕海洋碳汇交易，本文通过 BGG-DICE-DSGE 模型构建了“经济-金融-环境”分析框架，通过脉冲响应探讨了海洋碳汇交易对宏观经济和气候变化的异质性影响，通过敏感性分析考察了影响因素，并利用福利分析探索金融市场的进一步表现。研究发现：（1） 海洋碳汇交易可以缓解气候变化，提高社会福利，并在积极的财政和货币政策和更高的海洋产出百分比下进一步加强。（2） 作为碳汇交易的主体，企业对经济和环境系统的影响比政府更积极。（3）海洋产值占比显著影响双重效益。海洋碳汇效率对环境效益影响显著，而碳汇价格的相关影响较弱。（4）由于金融加速器效应，金融市场的外生冲击引起的产出减少，都会加剧社会福利的损失。本文从理论上阐释了海洋碳汇交易的战略意义，为未来海洋碳汇交易市场的建立提供了必要的经验和参考。