Product shortages are known to slow down the diffusion process. However, we counterintuitively theorize and empirically demonstrate that under specific conditions of social influence, the diffusion process may be accelerated by early product scarcity. Using an Agent-Based framework and Genetic Algorithm-based estimation, we analyzed 20 product categories to identify the critical trade-off influencing diffusion: the interplay of the social influence ratio of waiting customers to adopters, the external influence, and level of product scarcity. Strategic managerial actions can accelerate the adoption of products. For example, in the case of fitness trackers, we were able to simulate speed-up by up to two years compared to the standard Bass model. Importantly, we introduce a novel framework to study competition dynamics, analyzing how the timing of market entry and the production capacity of competitors, along with the initial installed capacity of the pioneering firm affect diffusion speed. This acceleration, whether due to managerial foresight or serendipity, necessitates careful orchestration to harness the enthusiasm of waiting customers and strategically allocate marketing spending on social media platforms, thereby differentially amplifying the influence of adopters and potential customers.

众所周知，产品短缺会减慢扩散过程。然而，我们反直觉地理论化和实证证明，在社会影响的特定条件下，早期产品稀缺可能会加速扩散过程。使用基于代理的框架和基于遗传算法的估计，我们分析了 20 个产品类别，以确定影响扩散的关键权衡：等待客户与采用者的社会影响比率、外部影响和产品稀缺程度的相互作用。战略管理行动可以加速产品的采用。例如，在健身追踪器的情况下，与标准 Bass 型号相比，我们能够模拟高达两年的加速。重要的是，我们引入了一个新的框架来研究竞争动态，分析市场进入的时间和竞争对手的生产能力，以及先驱公司的初始装机容量如何影响扩散速度。这种加速，无论是由于管理远见还是偶然性，都需要精心编排，以利用等待客户的热情，并战略性地分配社交媒体平台上的营销支出，从而差异化地扩大采用者和潜在客户的影响力。