What explains voter attitudes toward immigration in Latin America? This article argues that increased refugee arrivals moderate the impact of social identities on immigration attitudes. We propose that informational cues associated with increased immigration make cosmopolitan identities less important—and exclusionary national identities more important—determinants of immigration preferences. Analyzing 12 Latin American countries from the 2017–2022 wave of the World Values Survey, we demonstrate that cosmopolitanism is positively associated with pro-immigration attitudes, but only in countries experiencing low-to-moderate refugee inflows. Conversely, nationalism is negatively associated with pro-immigrant attitudes, and increasingly so as refugee inflows increase. The uneven distribution of refugee migration has therefore reshaped public opinion in Latin America by moderating the effects of competing social identities (i.e., cosmopolitanism and nationalism). These findings contribute to broader debates on the behavioral impacts of immigration by highlighting an indirect mechanism by which increased immigration may generate anti-immigrant hostility.

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Fairweather Cosmopolitans：移民危机期间拉丁美洲的移民态度


是什么解释了拉丁美洲选民对移民的态度？本文认为，难民抵达人数的增加缓和了社会身份对移民态度的影响。我们提出，与移民增加相关的信息线索使世界性身份变得不那么重要，而排他性国家身份更重要——移民偏好的决定因素。通过分析 2017-2022 年世界价值观调查的 12 个拉丁美洲国家，我们表明世界主义与支持移民的态度呈正相关，但仅限于难民流入率低到中度的国家。相反，民族主义与亲移民态度呈负相关，随着难民流入的增加，这种关系越来越严重。因此，难民移民分布不均通过缓和相互竞争的社会身份（即世界主义和民族主义）的影响，重塑了拉丁美洲的公众舆论。这些发现通过强调一种间接机制，增加的移民可能会产生反移民的敌意，从而促进了关于移民行为影响的更广泛辩论。