Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO₂ and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.

中文翻译：

---

根据线性温度和大气 CO2 关系估计的人为变暖

评估对《巴黎协定》中人为变暖目标的遵守情况需要透明、稳健和及时的指标。大气中 CO₂ 和温度增加之间的线性关系提供了一个似乎满足这些标准的框架，得出的人为变暖估计值比其他方法至少确定 30%。在这里，到 2023 年，我们估计相对于 1700 年之前的基线，人类造成的全球气温上升了 1.49 ± 0.11 °C。