Solar active regions (ARs) provide the required magnetic energy and the topology configuration for flares. Apart from conventional static magnetic parameters, the evolution of AR magnetic flux systems should have nonnegligible effects on magnetic energy store and the trigger mechanism of eruptions, which would promote the prediction for the flare using photospheric observations conveniently. Here we investigate 322 large (M- and X-class) flares from 2010 to 2019, almost the whole solar cycle 24. The flare occurrence rate is obviously higher in the developing phase, which should be due to the stronger shearing and complex configurations caused by affluent magnetic emergences. However, the probability of flare eruptions in decaying phases of ARs is obviously higher than that in the developing phase. The confined flares were in nearly equal counts to eruptive flares in developing phases, whereas the eruptive flares were half over confined flares in decaying phases. Yearly looking at flare eruption rates demonstrates the same conclusion. The relationship between sunspot group areas and confined/erupted flares also suggested that the strong field make constraints on the mass ejection, though it can contribute to flare productions. The flare indexes also show a similar trend. It is worth mentioning that all the X-class flares in the decaying phase were erupted, without the strong field constraint. The decaying of magnetic flux systems had facilitation effects on flare eruptions, which may be consequent on the splitting of magnetic flux systems.

中文翻译：

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与太阳活动区演变相关的大型喷发和受限耀斑


太阳能活动区域 （AR） 为耀斑提供所需的磁能和拓扑配置。除了常规的静磁参数外，AR磁通系统的演化对磁能储存和喷发触发机制的影响不可忽视，这将有利于利用光球层观测对耀斑的预测。在这里，我们研究了 2010 年至 2019 年的 322 次大型（M 级和 X 级）耀斑，几乎涵盖了整个太阳周期的 24 次。耀斑发生率在显影期明显较高，这应该是由于富裕磁涌现引起的更强的剪切和复杂的构型。然而，ARs 衰变期耀斑爆发的概率明显高于发展期。在发展阶段，受限耀斑的数量几乎等于喷发耀斑的数量，而在衰减阶段，喷发耀斑的数量是受限耀斑的一半。每年对火炬喷发率的观察也得出了相同的结论。太阳黑子群区域与受限/喷发耀斑之间的关系也表明，强场对物质抛射产生了限制，尽管它可能导致耀斑的产生。耀斑指数也显示出类似的趋势。值得一提的是，衰变阶段的 X 级耀斑全部喷发，没有强烈的场约束。磁通系统的衰变对耀斑爆发有促进作用，这可能是磁通系统分裂的结果。