This paper presents an approach for pricing gold from investors’ perspective. The model is based on no-arbitrage principles with minimal structural assumptions. There is no need to specify investor preferences. When fitted to match 10-year real U.S. Treasury rates, the model can replicate the salient fluctuations in the time series of gold prices since 2007. The model is also able to capture key patterns of CME Comex gold futures prices. The model implies that the majority of the value of gold is due to its role as an investment asset. (JEL G12, G13)

中文翻译：

---

黄金的投资价值


本文提出了一种从投资者的角度为黄金定价的方法。该模型基于无套利原则，具有最少的结构假设。无需指定投资者偏好。当拟合到 10 年期美国实际国债利率时，该模型可以复制自 2007 年以来金价时间序列的显着波动。该模型还能够捕捉 CME Comex 黄金期货价格的关键模式。该模型意味着黄金的大部分价值是由于它作为一种投资资产的作用。（JEL G12， G13）