We analyzed the evolution of extreme annual surface air temperature and rainfall on Earth, based on the recurrence rate of record-breaking events, and found the highest recurrence rates for record-high annual temperatures in the tropics, as opposed to the polar regions with the fastest warming. Both recurrence rates and the global surface area fraction with daily mean surface air temperatures exceeding 30° and 40°C provide further evidence for extremely hot years becoming more common and widespread. A similar analysis for precipitation highlighted some regions with more record-high annual total precipitation and others with record-low annual precipitation typically associated with drought. A multimodel ensemble of 306 runs with global climate models [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-45 (SSP2-45)] reproduced the statistics of record-breaking high temperatures, but there were some differences for the reanalysis precipitation record-breaking recurrence rates. The global climate model simulations suggested a slightly altered geographical pattern for record-breaking annual precipitation recurrence rates.

中文翻译：

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全球破纪录的重现率表明地表气温和极端降水的范围更广、更强烈


我们根据破纪录事件的重现率分析了地球上极端年地表气温和降雨量的演变，发现热带地区创纪录的年气温重现率最高，而变暖最快的极地地区则最高。复发率和日平均地表气温超过 30° 和 40°C 的全球表面积分数都为极端炎热年份变得更加普遍和广泛提供了进一步的证据。类似的降水分析强调了一些年总降水量创历史新高的地区，而其他年降水量创历史新低的地区通常与干旱有关。使用全球气候模型 [耦合模型比较项目第 6 阶段 （CMIP） 共享社会经济途径 2-45 （SSP2-45）] 运行的 306 次多模式集合再现了破纪录高温的统计数据，但再分析降水破纪录的重现率存在一些差异。全球气候模式模拟表明，破纪录的年降水重现率的地理模式略有改变。