In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. The results show significant differences between simulated changes in background mean climate and changes in low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) extreme seasons. Regional winter warming is most pronounced for cold extremes. In summer, there are more pronounced increases in high extremes in precipitation and westerly wind during the ozone hole formation period (late 20th century), affecting coastal regions and, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula. At midlatitudes, there is a reduction in the range of summer season wind extremes. Suggested mechanisms for these differences are provided relating to sea ice retreat and westerly jet position.

在这项研究中，耦合模式比较阶段 6 （CMIP6） 档案中可用的大型集合数据集用于提供 20 世纪和 21 世纪南极洲和南大洋极端季节演变的首个多变量概述，遵循中高辐射强迫情景。结果显示，模拟的背景平均气候变化与低 （10 个百分位） 和高 （90 个百分位） 极端季节的变化之间存在显著差异。区域性冬季变暖在极端寒冷中最为明显。在臭氧空洞形成时期（20 世纪末），夏季降水和西风的极端高温增加更为明显，影响沿海地区，尤其是南极半岛。在中纬度地区，夏季极端风的范围有所减少。提供了与海冰消退和西风急流位置相关的这些差异的建议机制。