The 1 January 2024, moment magnitude $\left(M_W\right)$ 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging analysis of its tsunami generation. We present tsunami models informed by a 6-subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model obtained through Bayesian inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes. Initial, onshore rupture toward the southwest is followed by delayed re-nucleation at the hypocenter, likely aided by fault weakening, causing significant seafloor uplift to the northeast. We construct a complex multi-fault uplift model, validated against geodetic observations, that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. The simulations can explain tsunami wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Upon comparison with alternative source models and analysis of 2000 multi-CMT ensemble solutions, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations.

中文翻译：

---

2024 MW 7.5 能登半岛地震的多段复杂性决定了海啸的产生


2024 年 1 月 1 日，矩震级 $（M_W）$ 7.5 能登半岛地震以复杂的方式破裂，对海啸生成的分析提出了挑战。我们提出了由 6 个子事件质心矩张量 （CMT） 模型提供的海啸模型，该模型是通过遥震和强运动数据的贝叶斯反演获得的。我们确定了两个不同的双侧破裂事件。最初，向西南方向的陆上破裂，随后在震源处延迟再成核，这可能是由于断层减弱，导致东北部的海底显着隆起。我们构建了一个复杂的多断层隆起模型，根据大地测量观测进行了验证，该模型与已知的断层系统几何形状一致，并且在对观测到的海啸进行建模中至关重要。模拟可以解释海啸波的振幅、时间和前导波的极性，这对于海啸早期预警至关重要。通过与替代源模型进行比较并分析 2000 个多 CMT 集成解决方案，我们强调了在真实海啸模拟中纳入复杂源效应的重要性。