Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate‐driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state‐of‐the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30‐year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070–2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate‐suitable areas for biodiversity.

中文翻译：

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预测气候变化对物种气候适宜性的未截断影响：来自高山国家的见解


欧洲大陆的气候预测表明，夏季更干燥，年降水量增加，冬季降雪更少，预计这将导致物种分布的变化。然而，大多数地区/国家目前缺乏跨分类群的全面气候驱动生物多样性预测，这给有效的保护工作带来了挑战。为了解决这一差距，我们的研究评估了气候变化对欧洲高山国家瑞士生物多样性的潜在影响。我们使用了最先进的物种分布建模方法和物种出现数据，这些数据涵盖了整个物种范围内遇到的气候条件，以帮助限制生态位截断。我们量化了基线气候与来自 12 个主要分类群的 7291 个物种的空间分布之间的关系，并预测了三个 30 年期间和两个温室气体浓度情景（RCP4.5 和 8.5）的未来气候适宜性。我们的结果表明，预测的气候变化对物种的气候适宜性有重要影响，不同分类学和保护状况组的回答各不相同。RCP8.5 （68%） 下面临气候适宜性重大变化的物种百分比高于 RCP4.5 （66%）。到本世纪末，预计 RCP8.5 下有 3000 个物种和 RCP4.5 下有 1758 个物种的气候适宜性下降。RCP8.5 下受影响最大的群体是软体动物、藻类和两栖动物，而 RCP4.5 下受影响最大的群体是软体动物、鸟类和维管植物。在空间上，到 2070-2099 年，我们预计研究区 RCP8.5 下 39% 的细胞和 RCP4.5 下 10% 的细胞的气候适宜性总体下降，同时预计 RCP8.5 下 50% 的细胞和 RCP4.5 下 73% 的细胞增加。 最一致的地理变化是向上、向南和向东。我们发现，保护区对高气候适宜性像元的覆盖率有望增加。我们的模型和地图通过指出未来适合生物多样性气候的区域，为空间保护规划提供指导。