Subnational divergence in the age and sex structures of populations can have far‐stretching consequences for development: from marriage markets to the potential for violence to economic growth. With urbanization and the demographic transition still underway, rural and urban populations continue to differ across low‐ and middle‐income countries. We examine the extent by which internal migration contributes to these differences, from 1970 to 2014 using estimates of migration between rural and urban sectors based on census data from 45 countries. We found that despite heavily delineated migration profiles by age and sex, internal migration does not alter sex and age structures of rural and urban populations. All the same, internal migration does increase urban growth in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, in Africa, internal migration has little leverage with the urban transition. Across the continents, there is a potential for de‐urbanization, driven by a rural/urban gap in fertility. As such, the rural population may continue to constitute a significant proportion of national populations, necessitating critical investments to ensure they are not left behind.

中文翻译：

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国内移民对非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲农村和城市人口的影响


人口年龄和性别结构的次国家级差异会对发展产生深远的影响：从婚姻市场到潜在的暴力，再到经济增长。随着城市化和人口结构转型仍在进行中，低收入和中等收入国家的农村和城市人口仍然存在差异。我们从 1970 年到 2014 年使用基于 45 个国家的人口普查数据对农村和城市部门之间移民的估计来研究国内移民对这些差异的贡献程度。我们发现，尽管按年龄和性别对迁移概况进行了大量划分，但内部迁移并不会改变农村和城市人口的性别和年龄结构。尽管如此，国内移民确实促进了亚洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的城市增长。相比之下，在非洲，国内移民对城市转型几乎没有影响。在各大洲，由于农村/城市生育率差距，存在去城市化的可能性。因此，农村人口可能继续占全国人口的很大一部分，因此需要关键投资以确保他们不被落下。