Is the geography of armed conflict in Africa becoming more urban? To answer this question, I link georeferenced data on the timing and location of armed conflict and protest events to continent-wide geospatial data on human settlement patterns. Comparing rates of conflict and contention in rural versus urban areas over time, I argue that, contrary to conventional wisdom, claims surrounding the ‘urbanization of conflict’ in Africa are premature. I find that the urbanization of conflict hypothesis only holds in North Africa, where armed conflict and protest are both increasingly urban phenomenon. In contrast, while the frequency of urban protest in sub-Saharan Africa has also increased substantially, conventional armed conflicts in rural areas have also risen over the same period. My study provides a quantitative summary of key patterns and trends in protest and conflict in Africa contributing to ongoing debates surrounding the frequency and character of violent and non-violent political contests on the continent.

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冲突的城市化？非洲武装冲突和抗议的模式


非洲武装冲突的地理环境是否变得更加城市化？为了回答这个问题，我将有关武装冲突和抗议事件的时间和地点的地理参考数据与整个大陆关于人类住区模式的地理空间数据联系起来。通过比较农村地区和城市地区随时间推移的冲突和争端率，我认为，与传统观点相反，围绕非洲“冲突城市化”的说法还为时过早。我发现冲突城市化假说只在北非成立，那里的武装冲突和抗议都日益成为城市现象。相比之下，虽然撒哈拉以南非洲城市抗议的频率也大幅增加，但同期农村地区的常规武装冲突也有所增加。我的研究对非洲抗议和冲突的主要模式和趋势进行了定量总结，有助于围绕非洲大陆暴力和非暴力政治竞争的频率和特征的持续辩论。