Purpose of Review

Extratropical jets and associated storm tracks significantly influence weather and regional climate across various timescales. Understanding jet responses to climate change is essential for reliable regional climate projections. This review serves two main purposes: (1) to provide an accessible overview of extratropical jet dynamics and a comprehensive examination of current challenges and uncertainties in predicting jet responses to greenhouse gas increases and (2) to suggest innovative experiments to advance our understanding of these responses.

Recent Findings

While successive generations of climate model ensembles consistently project a mean poleward shift of the midlatitude zonal-mean maximum winds, there remains considerable intermodel spread and large uncertainty across seasonal and regional jet responses. Of particular note is our limited understanding of how these jets respond to the intricate interplay of multiple concurrent drivers, such as the strong warming in polar and tropical regions, and the relative importance of each factor. Furthermore, the difficulty of simulating processes requiring high resolution, such as those linked to sharp sea surface temperature gradients or diabatic effects related to tropical convection and extratropical cyclones, has historically hindered progress.

Summary

We advocate for a collaborative effort to enhance our understanding of the jet stream response to climate change. We propose a series of new experiments that take advantage of recent advances in computing power and modelling capabilities to better resolve small-scale processes such as convective circulations, which we consider essential for a good representation of jet dynamics.

中文翻译：

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推进我们对涡流驱动急流对气候变化响应的理解 – 路线图

 审查目的

温带急流和相关的风暴路径在不同的时间尺度上显着影响天气和区域气候。了解急流对气候变化的响应对于可靠的区域气候预测至关重要。本综述有两个主要目的：（1） 提供温带急流动力学的易于理解的概述，并全面研究当前预测急流对温室气体增加的反应的挑战和不确定性，以及 （2） 提出创新实验以促进我们对这些反应的理解。

 最新发现

虽然连续几代气候模式集合一致预测中纬度纬向平均最大风速的极地偏移，但季节性和区域急流响应仍然存在相当大的模式间扩散和很大的不确定性。特别值得注意的是，我们对这些急流如何应对多个并发驱动因素的复杂相互作用（例如极地和热带地区的强烈变暖）以及每个因素的相对重要性的理解有限。此外，模拟需要高分辨率的过程的难度，例如与急剧的海面温度梯度或与热带对流和温带气旋相关的非绝热效应相关的过程，历来阻碍了进展。

 总结

我们倡导共同努力，以加强我们对急流对气候变化响应的理解。我们提出了一系列新的实验，这些实验利用计算能力和建模能力的最新进展来更好地解析小尺度过程，例如对流环流，我们认为这对于很好地表示喷流动力学至关重要。