In response to the urgent global climate crisis, climate activism has risen as a potent force. Decision‐making regarding climate collective action includes individuals' perceptions of the anticipated future existential risks of the climate crisis (risk of inaction) and present‐day political risks of climate activism (risk of action). Our research, spanning four studies (two correlational surveys and two pre‐registered experiments), focused on climate activism in Germany (N = 1027). We consistently showed that heightened politicized activist identification was associated with both confrontational and non‐confrontational climate collective action across four studies. Furthermore, the anticipated existential climate risk was associated with non‐confrontational climate action and present‐day political risk with confrontational action. Politicized climate identity remained a robust predictor across different action tactics, while the content and temporality of risk (future existential vs. present‐day political) in one's environment determined the transition between engagement in confrontational and non‐confrontational climate action dynamically. Nevertheless, we did not find causal links between risk perceptions and collective action. We discuss our findings in line with ESIM (Elaborated Social Identity Model), and potential explanations for the lack of causal relationship and future directions for alternative methodologies and comprehensive conceptualization of risk perceptions are suggested.

中文翻译：

---

今天的恐怖和明天的恐怖：未来生存风险和当今政治风险在气候行动主义中的作用


为了应对紧迫的全球气候危机，气候行动主义已成为一股强大的力量。关于气候集体行动的决策包括个人对气候危机的预期未来生存风险（不作为风险）和气候行动主义的当前政治风险（行动风险）的看法。我们的研究涵盖四项研究（两项相关调查和两项预先注册的实验），侧重于德国的气候行动主义 （N = 1027）。在四项研究中，我们一致表明，高度政治化的活动家认同与对抗性和非对抗性气候集体行动相关。此外，预期的生存气候风险与非对抗性气候行动相关，而当今的政治风险与对抗性行动相关。政治化的气候身份仍然是不同行动策略的有力预测指标，而一个人环境中风险的内容和时间性（未来生存与当今政治）决定了动态参与对抗性和非对抗性气候行动之间的过渡。然而，我们没有发现风险感知和集体行动之间存在因果关系。我们根据 ESIM（详尽社会身份模型）讨论了我们的发现，并提出了缺乏因果关系的可能解释和替代方法的未来方向和风险感知的全面概念化。