Small modular reactors (SMRs) offer a unique solution to the challenge of decarbonizing mid- and high-temperature industrial processes. Here we develop deployment pathways for four SMR designs displacing natural gas in industrial heat processes at 925 facilities across the United States under diverse policy and factory or onsite learning conditions. We find that widespread SMR deployment in industry requires gas prices above US$6 per metric million British thermal unit, low capital cost over-runs and/or aggressive carbon taxes. At gas prices of US$6–10 per metric million British thermal unit, 7–55 gigawatt-thermal (GW_t) of SMRs could be economically deployed by 2050, reducing annual emissions by up to 59 Mt of CO₂-equivalent. Of this deployment, 2–24 GW_t rely on module manufacturing learning within a factory. Widespread deployment potential hinges on avoiding substantial cost escalation for early investments. Policy levers such as direct subsidies are not effective at incentivizing sustainable deployment, but aggressive carbon taxes and investment tax credits provide effective support for SMR success.

小型模块化反应器 （SMR） 为中高温工业过程脱碳的挑战提供了独特的解决方案。在这里，我们为四种 SMR 设计开发了部署路径，这些设计在不同的政策和工厂或现场学习条件下，在美国 925 个设施的工业热处理中取代天然气。我们发现，在工业中广泛部署 SMR 需要每公百万英热单位 6 美元以上的天然气价格、低资本成本超支和/或激进的碳税。按照每百万英热单位 6-10 美元的天然气价格，到 2050 年，可以经济地部署 7-55 吉瓦热能 （GW_t） 的 SMR，每年减少高达 59 公吨二氧化碳当量的排放量。在这种部署中，2-24 GW_t 依赖于工厂内的模块制造学习。广泛的部署潜力取决于避免早期投资的成本大幅上升。直接补贴等政策杠杆在激励可持续部署方面并不能有效，但积极的碳税和投资税收抵免为 SMR 的成功提供了有效支持。