Intensification of farming since the Green Revolution has led to large increases in yield but has also increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Here, by providing a global comprehensive cradle-to-gate quantification from seed to yield, we show that the global warming potential (GWP) of conventional agriculture of grain crops has increased eightfold from 1961 to 2020, whereas the sustainability index (SI) has decreased threefold. Tillage, synthetic fertilizers and irrigation together accounted for 90% of the increased GWP, linked to tenfold increases in fertilization and groundwater use and more than doubled mechanized and irrigated areas. We highlight regions with high GWP and low SI, such as South Asia, and project further threefold increases in agriculture GWP by 2100 compared with 2020 (3.3 ± 0.73 PgCO₂e) driven by declined use efficiency of the inputs. Green energy and climate-smart agriculture techniques can reduce the projected GWP in 2100 to 2.3 PgCO₂e and increase the SI fourfold.

自绿色革命以来，农业集约化导致产量大幅增加，但也增加了人为温室气体排放。在这里，通过提供从种子到产量的全球综合量化，我们表明，从 1961 年到 2020 年，传统粮食作物农业的全球变暖潜能值 （GWP） 增加了 8 倍，而可持续性指数 （SI） 下降了 3 倍。耕作、合成肥料和灌溉合计占全球变暖潜能值增加的 90%，与施肥和地下水使用量增加 10 倍以及机械化和灌溉面积增加一倍多有关。我们强调了高 GWP 和低 SI 的地区，例如南亚，并预计到 2100 年，农业 GWP 将比 2020 年进一步增加三倍（3.3 ± 0.73 PgCO₂e），这是由于投入品利用效率下降。绿色能源和气候智能型农业技术可以将 2100 年的预计 GWP 降低到 2.3 PgCO₂e，并将 SI 提高四倍。