Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices are the most correlated with the burnt area between 2003 and 2022. We find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, we estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate. Our study raises the question of the sustainability of the Landes Forest and stresses the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.

2022 年夏季，欧洲尤其是法国西南部异常炎热干燥，自 1949 年以来最重要的野火对环境和社会经济产生了严重影响。在这里，我们进行了一项以影响为导向的气候变化归因研究，首先调查哪些气候指数与 2003 年至 2022 年期间的燃烧面积最相关。我们发现，将 6 个月土壤水分积分与 3 个月温度和水汽压力亏缺积分相结合的指数与大面积燃烧面积相关。使用开发的指数，我们估计人为气候变化使气候条件有利于野火发展，例如 2022 年 7 月的气候条件，可能性是野火发展的两倍，在当前气候下重现期为 13 年。我们的研究提出了 Landes 森林的可持续性问题，并强调了减少温室气体排放和适应气候变化的迫切需要。