The North Atlantic storm track plays a critical role in setting the regional weather and climate over Western Europe. In response to anthropogenic emissions, the summer North Atlantic storm track has weakened in recent decades and is projected to continue weakening by the end of this century. In light of growing efforts to mitigate climate change, it is crucial to assess how reversible the CO₂-induced storm track weakening is. Here, I show that under CO₂ removal scenarios, the recovery timescale of the storm track is more than double its weakening period. It is found that due to a prolonged high-latitude warming, postponing the execution of mitigation policies beyond doubling of CO₂ concentrations would lead to a centennial-scale recovery of the storms. Given the impacts of weakening summer storms on weather and extreme events, the delayed recovery of the storms might have broader regional consequences for Western Europe.

中文翻译：

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北大西洋夏季风暴路径减弱的百年规模恢复


北大西洋风暴路径在设定西欧的区域天气和气候方面起着关键作用。作为对人为排放的回应，夏季北大西洋风暴路径在近几十年来已经减弱，预计到本世纪末将继续减弱。鉴于缓解气候变化的努力越来越大，评估 CO₂ 引起的风暴路径减弱的可逆性至关重要。在这里，我表明，在 CO₂ 去除情景下，风暴路径的恢复时间尺度是其减弱期的两倍多。研究发现，由于高纬度变暖时间延长，推迟执行 CO₂ 浓度翻倍后的缓解政策将导致风暴的百年规模恢复。鉴于夏季风暴减弱对天气和极端事件的影响，风暴的延迟恢复可能会对西欧产生更广泛的区域影响。