Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are pivotal in global energy/water cycles and typically produce extreme weather events. Despite their importance, our understanding of their future change remains limited, largely due to inadequate representation in current climate models. Here, using a global storm-resolving model that accurately simulates MCSs, we conclude contrasting responses to increased SST in their occurrence, that is, notable decreases over land but increases over ocean. This land-ocean contrast is attributed to the changes in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). Over land, notable rises in CIN alongside moderate increases in CAPE effectively suppress (favor) weak to moderate (intense) MCSs, resulting in an overall reduction in MCS occurrences. In contrast, substantial increases in CAPE with minimal changes in CIN over ocean contribute to a significant rise in MCS occurrences. The divergent response in MCS occurrence has profound impacts on both mean and extreme precipitation.

中文翻译：

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热带陆地和海洋中尺度对流系统对海表温度升高的对比响应


中尺度对流系统 （MCS） 在全球能源/水循环中发挥着关键作用，通常会产生极端天气事件。尽管它们很重要，但我们对它们未来变化的理解仍然有限，这主要是由于当前气候模型中的代表性不足。在这里，使用准确模拟 MCS 的全球风暴解决模型，我们得出了对 SST 发生时增加的对比响应，即陆地显着减少，而海洋增加。这种陆地-海洋对比归因于对流可用势能 （CAPE） 和对流抑制 （CIN） 的变化。在陆地上，CIN 的显着增加以及 CAPE 的适度增加有效地抑制了（有利于）弱到中度（强烈）MCS，导致 MCS 发生率总体减少。相比之下，CAPE 的大幅增加和 CIN 在海洋上的变化很小，导致 MCS 发生率的显著增加。MCS 发生的发散响应对平均降水和极端降水都有深远的影响。