Trends in the coupled stratosphere-troposphere system during the 1979–2022 period are investigated in the Northern Hemisphere using reanalysis datasets. More upward planetary wave propagation in December is shown to precede the deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in January. This deceleration prevents the waves from continuing to propagate upward in February and favors an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in March. This is associated with an increased Northern Hemisphere annular mode in March in the stratosphere and the troposphere. Trends show a moderate significance level because of strong interannual variability. Recent seasons whose anomalies project onto the trends are those for which wave-1 anomaly constructively interferes with wave-1 climatology in December, which occurs when there is warming in an area extending from Eastern Canada to Greenland and slight cooling over Eurasia. It shows the potential for predicting the springtime stratospheric polar vortex from wintertime wave-1 anomalies.

中文翻译：

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北半球平流层在隆冬和早春之间的相反趋势与地表温度异常有关


使用再分析数据集研究了北半球 1979-2022 年期间平流层-对流层耦合系统的趋势。12 月行星波向上传播的趋势早于 1 月平流层极地涡旋的减速。这种减速阻止了波在 2 月继续向上传播，并有利于平流层极地涡旋在 3 月加速。这与 3 月份平流层和对流层北半球环模增加有关。由于较强的年际变率，趋势显示出中等显著性水平。最近几个季节的异常投射到趋势上，是 12 月的 1 波异常建设性地干扰了 1 月的气候，当从加拿大东部延伸到格陵兰岛的地区变暖，欧亚大陆略有降温时。它显示了从冬季 wave-1 异常预测春季平流层极地涡旋的潜力。