From 1944 to 1952, largely agrarian Finland had to export, on average, 4% of its yearly GDP in industrial products to the Soviet Union as war reparations. To meet the reparation demands, the Finnish state needed to provide extensive but temporary support to Soviet-assigned industries with insufficient production capacity. This paper documents the long-term impacts of this extensive and temporary industrial policy on industrial and local development and on individual outcomes. Using newly digitized datasets, I show in a difference-in-differences setup that the short-term nonmarket production persistently and significantly increased the employment and production of the manufacturing industries exposed to the policy. These industries plausibly benefited from large initial investments and exposure to export markets associated with the war reparations. The episode further led to local development and structural change, as the more exposed regions became persistently more industrialized. I substantiate these within-Finland results with triple-difference setups employing comparable Norwegian data. I further use Finnish administrative data to study the long-term individual impacts of the episode. Tracking individuals over 30 years, I show that the initial state investments and the persistent change in the local industrial structure increased long-term incomes, led to more educational attainment, and promoted the upward mobility of children and young adults living in the more exposed regions prior to the war reparations period. The observed effects are driven by the more advanced heavy industry, which received the majority of state assistance.

中文翻译：

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战争赔款、结构性变革和代际流动性


从 1944 年到 1952 年，以农业为主的芬兰平均不得不向苏联出口其年工业生产总值 4% 的工业产品作为战争赔款。为了满足赔偿要求，芬兰政府需要为苏联分配但生产能力不足的工业提供广泛但临时的支持。本文记录了这种广泛和临时的产业政策对工业和地方发展以及个人结果的长期影响。使用新数字化的数据集，我在双重差分设置中表明，短期非市场生产持续且显著地增加了受政策影响的制造业的就业和生产。这些行业似乎受益于与战争赔款相关的大量初始投资和出口市场。这一事件进一步导致了地方发展和结构变化，因为暴露程度更高的地区持续变得更加工业化。我使用可比的挪威数据的三重差分设置来证实这些芬兰内部的结果。我进一步使用芬兰的行政数据来研究该事件对个人的长期影响。对个人进行 30 多年的跟踪，我表明初始国家投资和当地工业结构的持续变化增加了长期收入，导致了更高的教育程度，并促进了生活在战赔期之前更暴露地区的儿童和年轻人的向上流动。观察到的效果是由更先进的重工业驱动的，该工业获得了大部分国家援助。