The Warm Arctic-Cold North American (WACNA) pattern features opposing surface temperature anomalies, with centers over the Chukchi-Bering Seas (CBS) and the North American Great Plains. The pattern is mainly driven by meridional heat transport and damped by the generation of available potential energy through diabatic heating. The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM5, part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), reasonably reproduces this pattern and its formation mechanisms. Future projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 8.5 (SSP5-8.5) suggest a significant weakening of WACNA with global warming. Notable changes in pattern intensity and spatial structure are anticipated, particularly a decrease in intensity over the CBS. WACNA changes are also found in 31 CMIP6 multi-model ensemble simulations. These changes are attributed to Arctic amplification associated with global warming, which diminishes the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and consequently reduces meridional heat transport, particularly over the CBS region.

中文翻译：

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北美暖北极-寒冷模式的预估变化


暖北极-寒冷北美 （WACNA） 模式具有相反的表面温度异常，中心位于楚科奇-白令海 （CBS） 和北美大平原上。该模式主要由经向热传递驱动，并通过非绝热产生可用势能进行阻尼。加拿大地球系统模型 CanESM5 是耦合模型比较计划第 6 阶段 （CMIP6） 的一部分，合理地再现了这种模式及其形成机制。根据共享社会经济途径 8.5 （SSP5-8.5） 的未来预测表明，随着全球变暖，WACNA 将显着减弱。预计模式强度和空间结构将发生显著变化，特别是 CBS 强度的降低。WACNA 变化也存在于 31 个 CMIP6 多模式集成模拟中。这些变化归因于与全球变暖相关的北极放大，它减少了赤道到极点的温度梯度，从而减少了经向热传递，尤其是在 CBS 区域。