Our understanding of drought evolution and land-atmosphere interactions under climate mitigation scenarios remains limited. Here, we analyzed future drought under net-zero and net-negative emission scenarios using the Community Earth System Model version 2, particularly focusing on three atmospheric CO₂ states: linearly increases, decreases, and a return to the initial state. Interestingly, results revealed that net-zero emissions are more effective for drought mitigation than net-negative targets. Drying trends and drought characteristics — such as the duration, frequency, intensity, and area expansion are prominently increased under net-negative emissions due to higher potential evapotranspiration (PET). This is because the soil moisture and temperature couplings are stronger over drought regions and years, especially under net-negative forcing, with notable impacts in Central Africa and South Asia. Nevertheless, both target scenarios offer regional benefits, such as weakened dryness. This suggests that mitigating CO₂ alone may not be sufficient to manage future droughts, highlighting the need for advanced water management strategies.

我们对气候缓解情景下干旱演变和陆地-大气相互作用的理解仍然有限。在这里，我们使用社区地球系统模型第 2 版分析了净零和净负排放情景下的未来干旱，特别关注三种大气 CO₂ 状态：线性增加、减少和恢复到初始状态。有趣的是，结果表明，净零排放比净负目标更有效地缓解干旱。由于较高的潜在蒸散量 （PET），在净负排放下，干旱趋势和干旱特征（例如持续时间、频率、强度和面积扩展）显着增加。这是因为土壤水分和温度耦合在干旱地区和年份中更强，尤其是在净负强迫下，对中非和南亚的影响显著。然而，这两种目标情景都提供了区域性的好处，例如干旱程度减弱。这表明，仅靠减少 CO₂ 可能不足以应对未来的干旱，这凸显了制定先进水资源管理策略的必要性。