Stock estimates of the US unauthorized foreign‐born population are routinely published, but less is known about this population's dynamics. Using a series of residual estimates based on 2000 Census and 2001–2022 American Community Survey (ACS), I estimate the components of change for the unauthorized immigrant population from 2000 to 2022 by region and country of origin. Further, I develop and present novel measures of expected duration in unauthorized status and demographic impact of unauthorized entries (i.e., person‐years lived in unauthorized status). Results reveal dramatic changes over the last two decades. In the early 2000s, the unauthorized immigrant population was dominated by Mexicans who tended to remain in the United States for extended periods of time and whose demographic impact on the US population was substantial. After the 2007–2008 Great Recession, a new pattern emerged. Unauthorized migrants now arrive from across the globe, including Central America and Asia (up through 2018), and most recently from Europe, Africa, Canada, Venezuela, and other parts of South America. These new unauthorized immigrants are more likely to arrive on temporary nonimmigrant visas (which typically allow a foreigner to live and work in the United States for six years) and, with the exception of Venezuelans, spend less time in unauthorized status. Overall, the demographic impact of this new type of unauthorized migration is lower than it was two decades ago.

中文翻译：

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超越股票和激增：美国非法移民人口的人口影响


美国未经授权的外国出生人口的存量估计经常公布，但对该人口的动态知之甚少。使用基于 2000 年人口普查和 2001-2022 年美国社区调查 （ACS） 的一系列残差估计，我按地区和原籍国估计了 2000 年至 2022 年非法移民人口变化的组成部分。此外，我开发并提出了新的衡量标准，即未经授权状态的预期持续时间和未经授权进入的人口影响（即，在未经授权状态下生活的人年）。结果揭示了过去二十年的巨大变化。在 2000 年代初期，未经授权的移民人口以墨西哥人为主，他们倾向于在美国停留较长时间，他们对美国人口的人口影响很大。在 2007-2008 年大衰退之后，出现了一种新的模式。未经授权的移民现在来自世界各地，包括中美洲和亚洲（截至 2018 年），最近来自欧洲、非洲、加拿大、委内瑞拉和南美洲其他地区。这些新的非法移民更有可能持临时非移民签证（通常允许外国人在美国生活和工作六年），并且除委内瑞拉人外，以非法身份停留的时间更少。总体而言，这种新型未经授权的迁移对人口的影响低于二十年前。