The Southeastern Siberia (SES) region has recently experienced increasingly extensive wildfires in spring, which have threatened its large carbon sequestration capacity from vast forests and peatlands. However, the underlying mechanisms propelling the increased fires and their potential responses to future climate change remain unclear. Here, by using reanalysis data and climate model output together with a deep learning model, we explore the relationship between positive-phase North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) sea-surface temperature anomalies and SES wildfire increases and project the future trend in SES wildfire intensities under climate change. We found that the positive-phase April NAT enhances the Siberian anticyclone, causing increased temperatures and snowmelt via strengthened transport of warm-air advection into the SES region. The latter process heightens the exposure of local high-density peatlands to favorable conditions for fire ignition and leads to more intensive wildfire incidents. We further demonstrate that the projected NAT variations can drive interdecadal changes in future April SES wildfires. With future phase shifting of NAT modes under global warming, the regionally averaged burned area in SES could be increased by 47–62% under different warming scenarios from 1982–2014 to 2015–2100. Our findings reveal the climate-driven escalation of future wildfires in SES in the context of global warming and call for active and urgent fire management strategies to mitigate the fire risk.

西伯利亚东南部 （SES） 地区最近在春季经历了越来越广泛的野火，这威胁到其从广阔的森林和泥炭地中吸收大量碳的能力。然而，推动火灾增加的潜在机制及其对未来气候变化的潜在反应仍不清楚。在这里，通过使用再分析数据和气候模型输出以及深度学习模型，我们探讨了正相位北大西洋三极 （NAT） 海面温度异常与 SES 野火增加之间的关系，并预测了气候变化下 SES 野火强度的未来趋势。我们发现，4 月正阶段 NAT 增强了西伯利亚反气旋，通过加强暖空气平流到 SES 地区的输送，导致温度升高和融雪。后一种过程增加了当地高密度泥炭地暴露在有利的火灾点火条件下，并导致更密集的野火事件。我们进一步证明，预计的 NAT 变化可以驱动未来 4 月 SES 野火的年代际变化。随着全球变暖下 NAT 模式的未来相移，在 1982-2014 年至 2015-2100 年的不同变暖情景下，SES 的区域平均燃烧面积可以增加 47-62%。我们的研究结果揭示了在全球变暖的背景下，SES 未来野火的气候驱动升级，并呼吁采取积极和紧急的火灾管理策略来减轻火灾风险。