The paper explores whether international migration is linked to currently decreasing levels of fertility in high birth rates countries, thereby to the advent of a stage of population degrowth at the world's level. Methodology is in two steps. First, a global dataset is assembled comprising 13 variables for each country. For the country itself: emigrant stock, total fertility rate, girls' enrolment rate, women's labour force participation, global gender gap, and income per capita; for a fictitious average region of destination of migrants originating from this specific country, the last six variables. In the second step, links between origin and destination countries in terms of fertility levels and determinants are analysed using bivariate correlations. A remarkable fact emerges, namely national levels of fertility and their determinants vary quasi perfectly parallel at both ends of international migration corridors. Fertility at origin is not correlated to any phenomenon as much as to fertility, girls' school enrolment and gender equity at destination. Three complementary hypotheses explaining this apparently puzzling fact are discussed: transmission of norms by migrants; cultural similarities at both ends of migrant corridors; and congruency between the global diffusion of norms and the global migration of people. The conclusion highlights the original contribution of the paper, both to the demographic discipline (migration should also be dealt with as a remote determinant of fertility) and political debates on migration (erecting barriers to migration works against the preservation of earth).

中文翻译：

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国际移民和新人口时代的到来


本文探讨了国际移民是否与目前高出生率国家的生育率下降有关，从而与世界层面人口去增长阶段的到来有关。方法分为两步。首先，组装一个全球数据集，其中包含每个国家的 13 个变量。对于国家本身：移民存量、总生育率、女孩入学率、女性劳动力参与率、全球性别差距和人均收入;对于来自该特定国家的移民的虚构平均目的地区域，最后六个变量。第二步，使用二元相关性分析原籍国和目的地国在生育率水平和决定因素方面的联系。一个值得注意的事实出现了，即国家生育率水平及其决定因素在国际移民走廊的两端几乎完全平行地变化。出生地的生育率与任何现象的相关性不如与生育率、女校入学率和目的地性别平等的相关性大。讨论了三个互补的假设来解释这个显然令人费解的事实：移民传播规范;移民走廊两端的文化相似性;以及规范的全球传播与全球人口迁移之间的一致性。结论强调了该论文的原始贡献，包括对人口学科（移民也应作为生育率的远程决定因素）和关于移民的政治辩论（为移民设置障碍不利于保护地球）。